During the investment planning phase, significant attention is paid to assessing the effectiveness of the investment project by conducting a prior economic analysis to assess the profitability of the enterprise.
However, in the event of a crisis, companies in the timber and paper industry should place greater emphasis on accurately forecasting their revenues and extending the payback period of their investments.
The correct approach in such cases is to develop a risk management system and assess the actual threats to the company's operations.
The PN-ISO 31000 standard proposes solutions in this regard. Implementing the principles and guidelines of the PN-ISO 31000 standard simultaneously allows for compliance with the risk assessment requirements of the ISO 9001:2015 standard. Implementing the requirements of the PN-ISO 31000 standard also allows for assessing the company's resilience to both potential and existing threats.
A common mistake companies make when developing their own risk management system is an unsuitable emphasis on threats arising from the company's macroeconomic environment, or significant approximation errors in relation to this. Our assistance in developing a proper risk assessment system is based on the use of a wide array of methods and tools dedicated to this purpose, in accordance with the ISO/IEC 31010 risk management standard.
These include:
• Root Cause analysis,
• Brainstorming,
• Structured or semi-structured Interviews,
• Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP),
• Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP),
• What-If Framework (SWIFT),
• Risk indicators,
• Scenario analysis,
• Failure Mode Effects analysis,
• Fault tree analysis,
• Event tree analysis,
• Cause and consequence analysis,
• Cause and effect analysis,
• Markov analysis,
• Monte Carlo simulation,
• Human reliability analysis,
• Bayesian Statistics and Bayesian Networks,
• Twist analysis,
• Layer Protection Analysis (LOPA),
• Decision tree,
• Environmental risk assessment,
• Business impact analysis,
• Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA),
• Link analysis,
• FN curves,
• Consequence/probability matrix,
• Cost-benefit analysis,
• Delphi.
The range of methods and tools used depends on complexity and scope of the risks involved. In each case, it is necessary to conduct an individual assessment of the scope of the threats and select appropriate methods and tools. Our specialty is, undoubtedly, the use of the Delphi method and analysis of the impact on business operations, due to the accuracy of the results obtained by the CERTWOOD GROUP. According to scientific studies, the forecasting error of the Delphi method, compared to other methods (i.e., qualitative and unstructured subjective forecasting), is significantly lower. In price forecasting studies, the error was 3-4% for Delphi, with an error of 10-15% for quantitative methods and approximately 20% for subjective forecasts. The method involves examining expert opinions regarding the probability or timing of a future event The result (forecast) is a consensus judgment of the experts on a given topic.
Among the numerous advantages of this method, you can count:
• Anonymity
• Independent expert opinions
• Multi-stage approach
• Coordination and summarization of expert opinions.
Along with guaranteeing professionalism in developing a risk management system, we also ensure complete anonymity and confidentiality of your company data.